Colorado Eagles at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Colorado Eagles

3:0

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

COLSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 3.21.4
High danger: 42
Chances: 114
Shots: 3415

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal15

11Scoring chances4

4High-danger chances2

3.21Expected goals1.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–5	3–2	1–1	1.0–0.7
2nd	11–4	4–1	2–1	1.1–0.4
3rd	11–6	4–1	1–0	1.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.21
GSAx: +0.21

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 15
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.37
GSAx: +1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:20Penalty
1st 10:43Penalty
2nd 15:01Penalty
2nd 19:48Jacob MacDonald (1–0)low · 19 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 8:18Penalty
3rd 8:55Jayson Megna (2–0)4v5 · grade A · 194 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 18:49Chris Wagner (3–0)empty net · low · 18 ft · beat Oscar Dansk