Henderson Silver Knights at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

2:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

HSKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 2.43.0
High danger: 32
Chances: 1010
Shots: 2435

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal35

10Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances2

2.38Expected goals2.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–8	6–3	2–0	1.4–0.6
2nd	5–15	2–6	0–2	0.5–1.6
3rd	5–12	2–1	1–0	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.99
GSAx: +1.99

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: +0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:08Penalty
1st 9:11Ville Ottavainen (0–1)low · 33 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 10:02Kai Uchacz (1–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 12:22Penalty
2nd 5:55Penalty
2nd 8:29Penalty
2nd 12:15Alexander Holtz (2–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 16:29Penalty
3rd 16:29Penalty
3rd 16:29Penalty