AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 15

San Jose Barracuda at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Jose Barracuda
3:6
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SJTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
46%54%
xG
4.34.1
High danger
78
Chances
1821
Shots
3434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal34
18Scoring chances21
7High-danger chances8
4.26Expected goals4.06

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–173–122–30.7–1.9
2nd11–95–40–31.1–1.1
3rd17–810–55–22.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ212:09 of the 3rd7:515:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
34
Saves
28
Allowed
6
xGA
4.06
GSAx
-1.94
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
34
Saves
31
Allowed
3
xGA
4.26
GSAx
+1.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:30Curtis Douglas (0–1)medium · 32 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 10:04Andrew Agozzino (0–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 11:36Penalty
  • 1st 11:36Penalty
  • 1st 11:57Penalty
  • 1st 12:43Penalty
  • 1st 14:57Penalty
  • 1st 15:32Andrew Agozzino (0–3)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 1:35Colin White (1–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 4:28Penalty
  • 2nd 6:13Penalty
  • 2nd 9:40Penalty
  • 2nd 9:51Penalty
  • 2nd 10:50Andrew Agozzino (1–4)5v4 · high · 28 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 13:10Penalty
  • 2nd 15:46Penalty
  • 2nd 16:38Penalty
  • 2nd 18:28Andrew Poturalski (2–4)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 5:04Penalty
  • 3rd 6:20Penalty
  • 3rd 12:03Penalty
  • 3rd 14:15Penalty
  • 3rd 14:56Rem Pitlick (3–4)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 19:15Kailer Yamamoto (3–5)empty net · medium · 16 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 19:40Ben McCartney (3–6)empty net · high · 13 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty