Calgary Wranglers at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Calgary Wranglers

4:5

Final / SO

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CGYABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

67%33%

xG: 3.32.9
High danger: 62
Chances: 1014
Shots: 3026

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal26

10Scoring chances14

6High-danger chances2

3.32Expected goals2.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–6	1–4	0–1	0.4–0.7
2nd	7–9	0–6	0–0	0.4–1.0
3rd	13–9	6–4	3–1	1.9–1.0
OT	4–2	3–0	3–0	0.6–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:58	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ty Young

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.32
GSAx: -0.68

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: -1.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:07Sam Morton (1–0)low · wrist · 25 ft · beat Ty Young
1st 3:13Penalty
1st 7:40Penalty
1st 15:36Penalty
1st 16:01Arshdeep Bains (1–1)5v4 · medium · snap · 31 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 16:59Aatu Räty (1–2)low · 37 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 17:48Rory Kerins (2–2)low · 32 ft · beat Ty Young
1st 19:12Clark Bishop (3–2)medium · 23 ft · beat Ty Young
2nd 9:18Penalty
2nd 9:18Penalty
2nd 11:26Penalty
2nd 13:50Penalty
2nd 19:20Penalty
2nd 19:20Penalty
3rd 5:08Aatu Räty (3–3)low · 38 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 7:32Linus Karlsson (3–4)medium · 12 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 19:54Tyson Barrie (4–4)grade A · 32 ft · beat Ty Young
OT 3:47Penalty