Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins

4:1

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

83%17%

xG: 3.52.0
High danger: 72
Chances: 136
Shots: 2925

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal25

13Scoring chances6

7High-danger chances2

3.46Expected goals2.01

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	3–3	1–2	0.6–0.9
2nd	14–6	7–1	4–0	1.8–0.4
3rd	9–9	3–2	2–0	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: -0.54

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: +1.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:02Penalty
1st 0:02Penalty
1st 13:48Penalty
1st 13:48Penalty
1st 13:48Penalty
1st 15:20Fraser Minten (1–0)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 18:17Penalty
2nd 2:29Fraser Minten (2–0)high · 9 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 6:45Penalty
2nd 7:37Penalty
2nd 9:55Fraser Minten (3–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 12:46Dalibor Dvorský (3–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 14:45Penalty
2nd 18:14Riley Duran (4–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 3:14Penalty
3rd 8:23Penalty