Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose

2:6

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.53.3
High danger: 37
Chances: 914
Shots: 2928

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal28

9Scoring chances14

3High-danger chances7

2.46Expected goals3.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–7	2–1	1–0	0.6–0.5
2nd	10–10	5–6	1–3	1.0–1.2
3rd	13–11	2–7	1–4	0.9–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	3:03 of the 3rd	16:57	16:57	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: +0.46

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 22
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.30
GSAx: -2.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:15Travis Boyd (0–1)low · 33 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 9:33Dominic Toninato (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 13:01Penalty
2nd 6:23Penalty
2nd 9:16Graeme Clarke (1–2)low · 38 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 9:43Penalty
2nd 11:42Isaak Phillips (2–2)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 17:17Graeme Clarke (2–3)low · 38 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 17:36Penalty
3rd 1:18Liam Öhgren (2–4)high · 22 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 2:58Penalty
3rd 3:03Travis Boyd (2–5)5v4 · grade A · tip · 11 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 5:26Penalty
3rd 9:09Penalty
3rd 9:09Penalty
3rd 13:40Gavin Hain (2–6)low · 42 ft · beat Chris Driedger