Charlotte Checkers at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Charlotte Checkers

3:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

CLTTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 3.61.9
High danger: 91
Chances: 149
Shots: 3018

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal18

14Scoring chances9

9High-danger chances1

3.56Expected goals1.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–4	2–1	1–0	0.5–0.3
2nd	16–8	6–6	6–0	1.8–0.9
3rd	9–6	6–2	2–1	1.2–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: +0.56

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.94
GSAx: -0.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:59Penalty
1st 8:54Penalty
1st 9:30Penalty
1st 10:10John Leonard (1–0)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 10:27Penalty
1st 16:36Penalty
2nd 4:08Penalty
2nd 5:15Ben Steeves (2–0)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 11:40Robert Mastrosimone (2–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 12:47Penalty
2nd 14:57Sandis Vilmanis (3–1)high · 10 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 19:38Penalty
3rd 2:46Cédric Paré (3–2)low · 46 ft · beat Ken Appleby
3rd 6:59Penalty
3rd 18:05Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty