Henderson Silver Knights at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

2:3

Final / SO

Ontario Reign

The sheet

HSKONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.43.2
High danger: 45
Chances: 712
Shots: 2232

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal32

7Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances5

2.38Expected goals3.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	1–6	0–2	0.3–1.4
2nd	8–10	4–2	3–2	1.1–0.8
3rd	5–10	2–4	1–1	0.7–0.9
OT	4–1	0–0	0–0	0.3–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:33	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.16
GSAx: +1.16

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: +0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:04Penalty
1st 13:45Penalty
1st 14:02Jack Studnicka (0–1)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Akira Schmid
1st 16:21Penalty
2nd 12:18Martin Chromiak (0–2)high · 11 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 15:33Penalty
2nd 17:54Penalty
2nd 19:57Penalty
3rd 6:42Braeden Bowman (1–2)low · 42 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 7:03Penalty
3rd 11:22Penalty
3rd 11:31Penalty
3rd 17:35Penalty
3rd 19:29Tanner Laczynski (2–2)4v5 · grade A · 13 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
OT 4:07Penalty