AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 16

San Jose Barracuda at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Jose Barracuda
5:6
Final / SO
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SJTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
67%33%
xG
4.43.5
High danger
93
Chances
1512
Shots
4036

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal36
15Scoring chances12
9High-danger chances3
4.42Expected goals3.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–84–23–01.0–0.6
2nd13–114–42–01.3–1.0
3rd15–137–64–32.0–1.6
OT2–40–00–00.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC212:09 of the 3rd7:513:05+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
39
Saves
34
Allowed
5
xGA
4.39
GSAx
-0.61
Aaron Dell
Shots faced
36
Saves
31
Allowed
5
xGA
3.54
GSAx
-1.46
Dylan Wells
Shots faced
1
Saves
1
Allowed
0
xGA
0.03
GSAx
+0.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:53Penalty
  • 1st 4:08Penalty
  • 1st 7:28Hunter Drew (0–1)low · 20 ft · beat Aaron Dell
  • 1st 7:52Penalty
  • 1st 9:22Penalty
  • 1st 9:34Danil Gushchin (1–1)5v4 · high · 38 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 10:26Lucas Carlsson (2–1)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 13:38Ben McCartney (2–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Aaron Dell
  • 1st 14:10Penalty
  • 1st 14:53Andrew Poturalski (3–2)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 2nd 4:38Andrew Poturalski (4–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 5:50Curtis Douglas (4–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Aaron Dell
  • 2nd 12:51Penalty
  • 2nd 19:23Penalty
  • 2nd 19:23Penalty
  • 3rd 0:56Pavol Regenda (5–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 6:33Penalty
  • 3rd 11:42Penalty
  • 3rd 14:00Curtis Douglas (5–4)low · 33 ft · beat Aaron Dell
  • 3rd 16:23Penalty
  • 3rd 16:42Penalty
  • 3rd 18:10Sammy Walker (5–5)5v4 · grade A · 19 ft · beat Aaron Dell
  • OT 2:21Penalty