Bakersfield Condors at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Bakersfield Condors

4:3

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

BAKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 3.33.3
High danger: 83
Chances: 1411
Shots: 3132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal32

14Scoring chances11

8High-danger chances3

3.34Expected goals3.26

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–12	1–3	1–2	0.5–1.2
2nd	17–5	9–3	4–0	2.1–0.6
3rd	7–15	4–5	3–1	0.7–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.26
GSAx: +0.26

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.34
GSAx: -0.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:39Penalty
1st 14:38Penalty
1st 14:59Penalty
1st 16:12Penalty
2nd 0:51Noah Philp (1–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 3:28Penalty
2nd 8:33Penalty
2nd 9:16Matthew Phillips (1–1)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 14:10Penalty
3rd 2:38Jacob MacDonald (1–2)high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 5:51Cameron Wright (2–2)high · wrist · 8 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 6:20Penalty
3rd 6:39James Hamblin (3–2)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 7:54Penalty
3rd 8:27Jacob MacDonald (3–3)5v4 · low · 38 ft · beat Collin Delia
3rd 15:53Drake Caggiula (4–3)high · 9 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 17:23Penalty