San Diego Gulls at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

San Diego Gulls

0:4

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

SDSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

13%87%

xG: 1.74.4
High danger: 411
Chances: 518
Shots: 1836

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal36

5Scoring chances18

4High-danger chances11

1.74Expected goals4.36

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–16	2–9	1–6	0.6–1.9
2nd	5–8	1–2	1–1	0.4–0.6
3rd	7–12	2–7	2–4	0.8–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.36
GSAx: +0.36

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 18
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.74
GSAx: +1.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:38Lucas Vanroboys (0–1)high · 11 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 17:50Penalty
1st 19:06Danil Gushchin (0–2)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 9:11Penalty
2nd 14:23Ethan Frisch (0–3)low · 60 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 16:37Penalty
3rd 7:19Penalty
3rd 14:01Penalty
3rd 14:01Penalty
3rd 14:01Penalty
3rd 18:44Penalty
3rd 19:04Colin White (0–4)empty net · high · 17 ft · beat Oscar Dansk