Charlotte Checkers at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Charlotte Checkers

3:4

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

CLTUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.72.3
High danger: 58
Chances: 910
Shots: 3124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal24

9Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances8

2.67Expected goals2.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	1–4	1–3	0.6–0.9
2nd	12–7	3–3	1–3	1.1–0.6
3rd	12–9	5–3	3–2	1.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: -0.33

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.97
GSAx: -0.03

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 3
Saves: 1
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.33
GSAx: -1.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:10Jack Malone (0–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 4:20Michael Benning (1–1)low · 35 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 5:57Jack Malone (1–2)high · 11 ft · beat Cooper Black
1st 9:32Nathan Légaré (1–3)low · 33 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 0:47C.J. Smith (2–3)low · 22 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 6:01Trevor Carrick (3–3)low · 31 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 7:09Xavier Parent (3–4)high · 17 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 10:01Penalty
3rd 3:50Penalty
3rd 18:03Penalty