AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 19

Milwaukee Admirals at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Milwaukee Admirals
3:6
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

MILLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
67%33%
xG
2.31.8
High danger
53
Chances
65
Shots
2627

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal27
6Scoring chances5
5High-danger chances3
2.32Expected goals1.84

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–131–31–10.6–0.8
2nd8–73–12–10.9–0.5
3rd12–72–12–10.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL33:53 of the 3rd16:0716:07+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
27
Saves
21
Allowed
6
xGA
1.84
GSAx
-4.16
Aleksei Kolosov
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
2.32
GSAx
-0.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:01Penalty
  • 1st 12:03Nikita Grebenkin (0–1)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 14:17Penalty
  • 1st 14:17Penalty
  • 1st 15:24Penalty
  • 2nd 4:13Kevin Gravel (1–1)low · 60 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 2nd 4:46Alexis Gendron (1–2)low · 41 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 15:12Penalty
  • 2nd 17:48Zayde Wisdom (1–3)low · 11 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 3:53Zayde Wisdom (1–4)high · rebound · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 9:24Garrett Wilson (1–5)low · 45 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 13:18Penalty
  • 3rd 15:01Jesse Ylonen (2–5)5v4 · high · rebound · 22 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 15:23Penalty
  • 3rd 16:30Jake Lucchini (3–5)4v5 · high · 22 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
  • 3rd 19:16Elliot Desnoyers (3–6)empty net · low · 57 ft · beat Matthew Murray