AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, March 19

Hershey Bears at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Hershey Bears
4:2
Final
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

HERSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
81%19%
xG
4.11.8
High danger
93
Chances
147
Shots
4320

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

43Shots on goal20
14Scoring chances7
9High-danger chances3
4.09Expected goals1.80

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st15–66–23–01.4–0.5
2nd17–63–11–01.3–0.3
3rd11–85–45–31.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis
Shots faced
43
Saves
39
Allowed
4
xGA
4.09
GSAx
+0.09
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
20
Saves
18
Allowed
2
xGA
1.80
GSAx
-0.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:08Penalty
  • 1st 5:12Penalty
  • 1st 19:01Penalty
  • 2nd 10:54Matt Strome (1–0)medium · 21 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 2nd 12:39Penalty
  • 2nd 14:55Bogdan Trineyev (2–0)low · 29 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 10:00Penalty
  • 3rd 11:31Mackenzie MacEachern (2–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 11:51Penalty
  • 3rd 11:58Penalty
  • 3rd 12:31Dalibor Dvorský (2–2)5v4 · high · 32 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 3rd 15:43Ethan Bear (3–2)low · 31 ft · beat Colten Ellis
  • 3rd 19:25Pierrick Dubé (4–2)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Colten Ellis