Manitoba Moose at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Manitoba Moose

3:2

Final / OT

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MBRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 3.82.6
High danger: 75
Chances: 149
Shots: 3222

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal22

14Scoring chances9

7High-danger chances5

3.81Expected goals2.64

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	4–4	1–2	1.0–1.2
2nd	7–4	3–2	2–2	0.8–0.5
3rd	14–6	5–3	3–1	1.6–0.9
OT	2–1	2–0	1–0	0.4–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:37	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.81
GSAx: +0.81

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.64
GSAx: +0.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:42Penalty
1st 2:42Penalty
1st 7:36Penalty
1st 9:49Jalen Luypen (0–1)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 10:53Mason Shaw (1–1)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 11:02Penalty
1st 15:26Penalty
2nd 2:23Penalty
2nd 3:46Penalty
2nd 9:29Penalty
2nd 16:34Penalty
3rd 4:43Fabian Wagner (2–1)low · 29 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 17:33Gerry Mayhew (2–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 19:15Penalty
OT 4:29C.J. Suess (3–2)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso