Ontario Reign at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Ontario Reign

4:1

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

ONTTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 1.72.8
High danger: 12
Chances: 69
Shots: 2131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal31

6Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances2

1.74Expected goals2.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–9	1–2	0–1	0.3–0.9
2nd	8–9	3–3	1–1	0.9–0.9
3rd	8–13	2–4	0–0	0.5–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	14:40 of the 3rd	5:20	3:23	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: +1.80

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: -1.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:44Penalty
1st 12:08Penalty
1st 12:08Penalty
1st 16:43Penalty
1st 18:48Penalty
1st 18:48Penalty
2nd 1:13Taylor Ward (1–0)low · 56 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
2nd 3:21Penalty
2nd 7:21Penalty
2nd 14:15Penalty
3rd 11:18Penalty
3rd 12:42Penalty
3rd 14:40Jeff Malott (2–0)5v4 · low · 42 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 14:59Justin Hryckowian (2–1)low · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 17:26Penalty
3rd 18:54Caleb Jones (3–1)empty net · low · 167 ft
3rd 19:16Glenn Gawdin (4–1)empty net · low · 150 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg