Bakersfield Condors at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Bakersfield Condors

3:4

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

BAKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 3.04.4
High danger: 78
Chances: 1120
Shots: 2536

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal36

11Scoring chances20

7High-danger chances8

3.00Expected goals4.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–15	1–8	1–5	0.3–2.0
2nd	11–8	6–4	4–1	1.6–0.8
3rd	11–13	4–8	2–2	1.1–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.37
GSAx: +0.37

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: +0.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:19Chris Wagner (0–1)high · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 14:21William Dufour (0–2)high · 17 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 16:41James Hamblin (1–2)grade A · 21 ft · beat Adam Scheel
2nd 5:44Penalty
2nd 6:15Tye Felhaber (1–3)4v5 · medium · 31 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 7:57Penalty
2nd 10:08Connor Carrick (2–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Adam Scheel
2nd 10:43Penalty
2nd 14:53Jacob MacDonald (2–4)low · 19 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 16:03Penalty
2nd 16:18Penalty
2nd 16:18Penalty
2nd 17:39James Hamblin (3–4)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Adam Scheel
3rd 0:21Penalty
3rd 9:47Penalty
3rd 18:42Penalty