AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 21

Hershey Bears at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Hershey Bears
3:4
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

HERHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
43%57%
xG
2.12.6
High danger
44
Chances
811
Shots
2430

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal30
8Scoring chances11
4High-danger chances4
2.10Expected goals2.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–72–41–10.6–0.6
2nd6–134–43–10.8–1.1
3rd9–102–30–20.6–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
2.58
GSAx
-1.42
Dylan Garand
Shots faced
24
Saves
21
Allowed
3
xGA
2.10
GSAx
-0.90

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties