AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 21

Toronto Marlies at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Toronto Marlies
2:3
Final
Belleville Senators

The sheet

TORBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
60%40%
xG
3.33.0
High danger
53
Chances
1412
Shots
3928

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BEL above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

39Shots on goal28
14Scoring chances12
5High-danger chances3
3.26Expected goals2.98

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–94–51–00.9–0.9
2nd14–128–34–11.7–1.2
3rd16–72–40–20.7–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Leevi Meriläinen
Shots faced
39
Saves
37
Allowed
2
xGA
3.26
GSAx
+1.26
Dennis Hildeby
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
2.98
GSAx
-0.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:52Penalty
  • 1st 4:59Jan Jeník (0–1)medium · wrist · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 10:09Penalty
  • 1st 11:19Jacob Quillan (1–1)5v4 · high · tip · 22 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 12:47Angus Crookshank (1–2)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 1st 14:42Penalty
  • 1st 17:36Penalty
  • 1st 17:36Penalty
  • 1st 18:43Topi Niemelä (2–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
  • 1st 19:59Penalty
  • 2nd 1:48Penalty
  • 2nd 4:38Penalty
  • 2nd 5:24Penalty
  • 2nd 9:16Penalty
  • 2nd 9:16Penalty
  • 2nd 9:16Penalty
  • 2nd 9:16Penalty
  • 2nd 14:35Wyatte Wylie (2–3)low · 59 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
  • 2nd 16:32Penalty
  • 2nd 18:55Penalty
  • 3rd 17:55Penalty
  • 3rd 17:55Penalty