Providence Bruins at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Providence Bruins

10:2

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

PROWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 5.54.1
High danger: 157
Chances: 2017
Shots: 4044

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal44

20Scoring chances17

15High-danger chances7

5.49Expected goals4.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–13	5–7	4–4	1.5–1.4
2nd	12–19	6–6	5–1	1.8–1.3
3rd	15–12	9–4	6–2	2.2–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
WBS	6	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 42
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.10
GSAx: +2.10

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 18
Allowed: 7
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: -3.69

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 12
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: -0.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:24Jake Gaudet (1–0)high · tip · 21 ft · beat Filip Larsson
1st 14:17Joey Abate (2–0)high · snap · rebound · 18 ft · beat Filip Larsson
1st 19:20Jake Gaudet (3–0)high · backhand · 10 ft · beat Filip Larsson
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 0:59Jeffrey Viel (4–0)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 5:24Sam Poulin (4–1)medium · wrist · 27 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 5:31Penalty
2nd 5:31Penalty
2nd 5:31Penalty
2nd 9:09Penalty
2nd 9:16Georgii Merkulov (5–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · rebound · 65 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 12:56Penalty
2nd 12:59Penalty
2nd 14:58Ty Gallagher (6–1)5v4 · low · wrist · 63 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 16:06Penalty
2nd 16:06Penalty
2nd 18:58Frederic Brunet (7–1)low · tip · 19 ft · beat Filip Larsson
3rd 0:31Penalty
3rd 1:28Penalty
3rd 3:02Jeffrey Viel (8–1)5v4 · grade A · tip · rebound · 10 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 7:17Matthew Poitras (9–1)high · wrist · 11 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 10:38Boris Katchouk (9–2)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 15:29Penalty
3rd 18:54Brett Harrison (10–2)low · slap · 13 ft · beat Sergei Murashov