Milwaukee Admirals at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Milwaukee Admirals

4:1

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

MILSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 3.82.1
High danger: 33
Chances: 154
Shots: 3824

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal24

15Scoring chances4

3High-danger chances3

3.80Expected goals2.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–6	3–0	1–0	0.8–0.4
2nd	16–9	6–3	1–2	1.6–0.9
3rd	15–9	6–1	1–1	1.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 34
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.80
GSAx: -0.20

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: +1.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:01Grigori Denisenko (1–0)high · 22 ft · beat Colten Ellis
1st 7:20Penalty
2nd 1:19Penalty
2nd 7:09Penalty
2nd 11:09Penalty
2nd 12:22Penalty
2nd 12:22Nikita Alexandrov (1–1)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 15:12Ondrej Pavel (2–1)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 4:05Mark Friedman (3–1)medium · 28 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 5:54Penalty
3rd 6:18Penalty
3rd 18:55Joakim Kemell (4–1)empty net · medium · 28 ft · beat Colten Ellis