Abbotsford Canucks at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Abbotsford Canucks

4:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

ABBMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 2.62.1
High danger: 73
Chances: 107
Shots: 2626

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal26

10Scoring chances7

7High-danger chances3

2.63Expected goals2.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–9	4–2	2–0	0.9–0.7
2nd	13–7	5–1	4–0	1.3–0.3
3rd	6–10	1–4	1–3	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +0.10

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.63
GSAx: -1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:32Penalty
1st 12:26Tristen Nielsen (1–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 12:52Danila Klimovich (2–0)high · 8 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 14:18Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (2–1)low · 64 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 14:49Tristen Nielsen (3–1)grade A · 19 ft · beat Chris Driedger
2nd 7:26Penalty
3rd 2:00Penalty
3rd 9:45Penalty
3rd 16:57Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (3–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 17:18Penalty
3rd 19:16Ty Mueller (4–2)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Chris Driedger