AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 21

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Coachella Valley Firebirds
1:3
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

CVCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
3.32.4
High danger
43
Chances
910
Shots
3425

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal25
9Scoring chances10
4High-danger chances3
3.29Expected goals2.40

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–73–33–21.4–0.9
2nd6–151–70–10.4–1.5
3rd15–35–01–01.5–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Waltteri Ignatjew
Shots faced
34
Saves
33
Allowed
1
xGA
3.29
GSAx
+2.29
Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.40
GSAx
-0.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 17:16Ty Tullio (0–1)grade A · snap · rebound · 8 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 16:25Martin Frk (0–2)high · backhand · 5 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 16:30Penalty
  • 2nd 16:30Penalty
  • 2nd 16:30Penalty
  • 2nd 16:30Penalty
  • 2nd 18:03Penalty
  • 3rd 6:03Penalty
  • 3rd 9:02Penalty
  • 3rd 18:15Mitchell Stephens (1–2)low · 17 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 18:47William Strömgren (1–3)empty net · low · 78 ft · beat Nikke Kokko