Belleville Senators at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Belleville Senators

2:4

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BELTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.13.3
High danger: 36
Chances: 912
Shots: 2531

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal31

9Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances6

2.14Expected goals3.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–13	4–5	0–2	0.9–1.2
2nd	6–9	2–3	1–2	0.5–0.9
3rd	10–9	3–4	2–2	0.8–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Malcolm Subban

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.31
GSAx: -0.69

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 15
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.25
GSAx: +0.25

Matt Murray

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 8
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.90
GSAx: -0.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:04Alex Steeves (0–1)high · 12 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 1:36Penalty
1st 1:36Penalty
1st 2:21Jorian Donovan (1–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Matt Murray
1st 4:31Brandon Baddock (1–2)high · 6 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
1st 6:33Penalty
1st 11:20Penalty
1st 17:21Penalty
1st 18:18Penalty
1st 19:44Penalty
2nd 0:44Penalty
2nd 3:44Alex Nylander (1–3)5v4 · low · rebound · 15 ft · beat Malcolm Subban
2nd 4:58Penalty
2nd 4:58Penalty
2nd 17:12Cole Reinhardt (2–3)low · 30 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
3rd 4:19Penalty
3rd 18:49Jacob Quillan (2–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Malcolm Subban