AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 22

Springfield Thunderbirds at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds
1:4
Final
Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

SPRBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
18%82%
xG
1.64.1
High danger
25
Chances
416
Shots
2235

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BRI above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal35
4Scoring chances16
2High-danger chances5
1.61Expected goals4.10

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–143–42–10.9–1.4
2nd6–141–100–30.3–2.1
3rd7–70–20–10.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR31:37 of the 3rd18:2318:23+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
4.10
GSAx
+0.10
Henrik Tikkanen
Shots faced
22
Saves
21
Allowed
1
xGA
1.61
GSAx
+0.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:36Chris Terry (0–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 1st 7:25Penalty
  • 1st 8:21Nikita Alexandrov (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 9:50Penalty
  • 2nd 11:27Adam Beckman (1–2)5v4 · high · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 13:10Penalty
  • 2nd 17:09Adam Beckman (1–3)medium · 20 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 2nd 18:12Penalty
  • 2nd 19:35Penalty
  • 2nd 19:35Penalty
  • 2nd 19:35Penalty
  • 3rd 1:37Cam Thiesing (1–4)medium · backhand · 24 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
  • 3rd 14:00Penalty