AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 22

Milwaukee Admirals at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Milwaukee Admirals
1:2
Final / OT
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

MILHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
83%17%
xG
4.31.9
High danger
112
Chances
158
Shots
3428

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal28
15Scoring chances8
11High-danger chances2
4.29Expected goals1.92

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st13–115–23–11.3–0.7
2nd6–92–42–10.5–0.7
3rd15–78–26–02.5–0.4
OT0–10–00–00.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL116:56 of the 3rd3:041:38+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand
Shots faced
34
Saves
33
Allowed
1
xGA
4.29
GSAx
+3.29
Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
1.92
GSAx
-0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:18Penalty
  • 1st 8:07Penalty
  • 2nd 0:43Penalty
  • 2nd 4:49Penalty
  • 2nd 14:26Penalty
  • 2nd 16:49Penalty
  • 3rd 0:19Brandon Scanlin (0–1)low · 62 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 3rd 1:36Penalty
  • 3rd 18:34Grigori Denisenko (1–1)grade A · rebound · 28 ft · beat Dylan Garand
  • OT 1:54Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (1–2)low · 35 ft · beat Magnus Chrona