Ontario Reign at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Ontario Reign

2:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

ONTIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 4.03.8
High danger: 76
Chances: 1816
Shots: 3532

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal32

18Scoring chances16

7High-danger chances6

3.96Expected goals3.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	6–8	3–4	1.4–1.7
2nd	14–12	9–4	2–1	1.8–1.4
3rd	9–8	3–4	2–1	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.96
GSAx: +1.96

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 28
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.83
GSAx: -0.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:59Martin Chromiak (1–0)high · 10 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 6:05Penalty
1st 11:30Ben Jones (1–1)medium · 27 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 18:27Travis Boyd (1–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 1:49Ben Jones (1–3)low · 10 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 4:54Glenn Gawdin (2–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 11:31Penalty
2nd 16:57Penalty
2nd 18:43Tyler Madden (2–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 19:30Penalty