Rochester Americans at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Rochester Americans

4:1

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

ROCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

93%7%

xG: 3.81.1
High danger: 60
Chances: 142
Shots: 3317

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal17

14Scoring chances2

6High-danger chances0

3.81Expected goals1.06

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–7	5–0	3–0	1.7–0.3
2nd	10–3	4–1	1–0	1.1–0.2
3rd	7–7	5–1	2–0	1.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.81
GSAx: -0.19

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 16
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.06
GSAx: +0.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:35Penalty
1st 10:52Penalty
1st 15:07Penalty
1st 16:58Mason Jobst (1–0)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
1st 18:49Penalty
2nd 5:35Penalty
2nd 6:50Penalty
2nd 8:27Noah Östlund (2–0)4v5 · high · 19 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
2nd 12:43Penalty
2nd 12:43Penalty
2nd 15:07Penalty
2nd 16:33Penalty
2nd 16:33Penalty
3rd 0:09Penalty
3rd 2:19Penalty
3rd 5:28Tristan Allard (2–1)low · 25 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 11:27Noah Östlund (3–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 17:52Penalty
3rd 18:24Noah Östlund (4–1)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Ryan Fanti