Providence Bruins at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Providence Bruins

3:1

Final

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

PROLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

66%34%

xG: 2.22.0
High danger: 42
Chances: 67
Shots: 2529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal29

6Scoring chances7

4High-danger chances2

2.18Expected goals2.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–5	2–2	2–0	0.7–0.5
2nd	8–12	2–2	1–1	0.7–0.6
3rd	8–12	2–3	1–1	0.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.03
GSAx: +1.03

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: -0.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:37Penalty
1st 3:40Penalty
1st 8:09Penalty
1st 9:32Penalty
1st 11:13Matthew Poitras (1–0)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 14:21Penalty
2nd 14:54Penalty
3rd 8:16Brett Harrison (2–0)grade A · 14 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 16:50Penalty
3rd 16:50Penalty
3rd 16:50Matthew Poitras (3–0)empty net · low · 30 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 18:18Alexis Gendron (3–1)medium · 34 ft · beat Michael DiPietro