Rockford IceHogs at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Rockford IceHogs

2:1

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

RFDGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

81%19%

xG: 3.31.7
High danger: 72
Chances: 104
Shots: 2927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal27

10Scoring chances4

7High-danger chances2

3.35Expected goals1.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–8	2–2	2–1	0.9–0.7
2nd	10–8	4–0	3–0	1.4–0.3
3rd	10–11	4–2	2–1	1.1–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jan Bednar

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.35
GSAx: +1.35

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.69
GSAx: +0.69

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:42Penalty
1st 7:00Penalty
2nd 2:15Paul Ludwinski (1–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Jan Bednar
2nd 4:40Penalty
2nd 5:27Samuel Savoie (2–0)4v5 · high · backhand · 7 ft · beat Jan Bednar
2nd 10:33Penalty
2nd 18:42Penalty
3rd 2:02Penalty
3rd 4:43Penalty
3rd 4:43Penalty
3rd 4:43Penalty
3rd 4:50Amadeus Lombardi (2–1)5v4 · medium · wrist · 40 ft · beat Drew Commesso
3rd 7:02Penalty