AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, March 22

Tucson Roadrunners at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Tucson Roadrunners
2:6
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TUCCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
14%86%
xG
2.15.4
High danger
510
Chances
623
Shots
2841

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0246P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal41
6Scoring chances23
5High-danger chances10
2.10Expected goals5.38

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–152–61–20.7–1.5
2nd11–142–112–50.8–2.5
3rd9–122–62–30.6–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
36
Saves
30
Allowed
6
xGA
4.93
GSAx
-1.07
Trent Miner
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
2.10
GSAx
+0.10
Dylan Wells
Shots faced
5
Saves
5
Allowed
0
xGA
0.45
GSAx
+0.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 9:54Penalty
  • 1st 12:06Jason Polin (0–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 13:20Jayson Megna (0–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 18:21Penalty
  • 2nd 5:57Jason Polin (0–3)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 10:00Penalty
  • 2nd 11:54Chris Wagner (0–4)4v5 · medium · 29 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 12:50Penalty
  • 2nd 12:50Penalty
  • 3rd 1:10Tye Felhaber (0–5)low · 25 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 2:02Kailer Yamamoto (1–5)high · 9 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 3rd 5:47Penalty
  • 3rd 6:53Chris Wagner (1–6)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 10:55Penalty
  • 3rd 15:58Penalty
  • 3rd 17:30Austin Poganski (2–6)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 3rd 17:35Penalty
  • 3rd 17:35Penalty
  • 3rd 17:35Penalty
  • 3rd 17:35Penalty
  • 3rd 18:19Penalty
  • 3rd 18:19Penalty
  • 3rd 18:57Penalty
  • 3rd 18:57Penalty