Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

5:2

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

WBSBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 1.72.1
High danger: 32
Chances: 76
Shots: 2124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal24

7Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances2

1.68Expected goals2.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–6	4–2	2–1	0.8–0.5
2nd	10–9	3–2	1–0	0.8–0.7
3rd	3–9	0–2	0–1	0.1–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.07
GSAx: +0.07

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 12
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.89
GSAx: -0.11

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 4
Allowed: 4
xGA: 0.80
GSAx: -3.20

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:06Sam Poulin (1–0)low · 56 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 6:54Matt Nieto (2–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 8:50Penalty
1st 16:58Penalty
1st 17:26Valtteri Puustinen (3–0)5v4 · medium · 26 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 19:16Boris Katchouk (4–0)high · 12 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 3:38Marshall Warren (4–1)low · 57 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 14:28Alex Jefferies (4–2)low · 43 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 16:31Chase Stillman (5–2)low · 40 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 3:45Penalty
3rd 14:56Penalty