Texas Stars at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Texas Stars

5:2

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

TEXCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 2.13.3
High danger: 24
Chances: 516
Shots: 2531

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal31

5Scoring chances16

2High-danger chances4

2.06Expected goals3.26

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–9	2–7	1–2	1.0–1.2
2nd	3–12	0–6	0–1	0.1–1.3
3rd	11–10	3–3	1–1	1.0–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	0:40 of the 3rd	19:20	19:20	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.26
GSAx: +1.26

Dustin Tokarski

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 12
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.06
GSAx: +0.06

Ruslan Khazheyev

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 8
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.00
GSAx: -3.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:22Penalty
1st 5:01Cameron Hughes (1–0)low · 42 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
1st 6:35Matěj Blümel (2–0)low · 37 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
1st 7:09Penalty
1st 8:06Kole Lind (3–0)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
1st 13:59Penalty
1st 14:40Penalty
1st 16:47Bradly Nadeau (3–1)medium · 7 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 18:29Bradly Nadeau (3–2)medium · 31 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 1:07Matěj Blümel (4–2)low · 44 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
2nd 4:52Penalty
2nd 7:32Penalty
3rd 0:40Curtis McKenzie (5–2)medium · rebound · 14 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
3rd 7:14Penalty
3rd 17:02Penalty