AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 23

Ontario Reign at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Ontario Reign
7:4
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

ONTIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
4.03.0
High danger
94
Chances
169
Shots
3727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal27
16Scoring chances9
9High-danger chances4
3.96Expected goals2.96

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–176–64–21.3–1.9
2nd12–75–32–21.4–0.8
3rd15–35–03–01.2–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA216:38 of the 3rd3:223:22+0.015 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Ferguson
Shots faced
37
Saves
30
Allowed
7
xGA
3.96
GSAx
-3.04
Jacob Ingham
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
2.96
GSAx
-1.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:12Jeff Malott (1–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 1st 7:49Glenn Gawdin (2–0)high · 9 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 1st 15:01Penalty
  • 1st 19:11Michael Milne (2–1)grade A · 44 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 1st 19:56Luke Toporowski (2–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 2nd 1:50Michael Milne (2–3)high · backhand · 5 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 2nd 7:10Penalty
  • 2nd 7:32Samuel Fagemo (3–3)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 2nd 9:29Penalty
  • 2nd 12:18Gavin Hain (3–4)low · 41 ft · beat Jacob Ingham
  • 2nd 14:08Penalty
  • 2nd 14:08Penalty
  • 2nd 14:08Penalty
  • 2nd 15:11Jeff Malott (4–4)5v4 · medium · 40 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 3rd 11:03Penalty
  • 3rd 11:40Samuel Fagemo (5–4)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 3rd 16:38Jack Studnicka (6–4)medium · 24 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
  • 3rd 17:13Glenn Gawdin (7–4)empty net · low · 50 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson