AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 23

Tucson Roadrunners at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Tucson Roadrunners
3:5
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

TUCCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
38%62%
xG
3.63.8
High danger
49
Chances
1318
Shots
3832

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal32
13Scoring chances18
4High-danger chances9
3.63Expected goals3.83

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–123–80–30.6–1.5
2nd16–156–82–51.9–1.8
3rd16–54–22–11.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC214:57 of the 3rd5:035:03+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
3.63
GSAx
+0.63
Dylan Wells
Shots faced
32
Saves
27
Allowed
5
xGA
3.83
GSAx
-1.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 7:29Chase Bradley (0–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 1st 8:13Penalty
  • 1st 14:46Ben McCartney (1–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 0:58Artem Duda (2–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 6:49Penalty
  • 2nd 10:35Mark Senden (2–2)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 2nd 13:15Penalty
  • 2nd 13:15Penalty
  • 2nd 13:15Penalty
  • 2nd 15:11Penalty
  • 2nd 15:59Tye Felhaber (2–3)4v5 · high · 11 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 9:01Penalty
  • 3rd 14:57Chad Hillebrand (2–4)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 18:03Sammy Walker (3–4)medium · 22 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 3rd 18:37Tye Felhaber (3–5)empty net · low · 56 ft · beat Dylan Wells