AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, March 23

Bakersfield Condors at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Bakersfield Condors
3:6
Final
San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

BAKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
17%83%
xG
2.55.3
High danger
412
Chances
725
Shots
3644

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SJ above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal44
7Scoring chances25
4High-danger chances12
2.48Expected goals5.33

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st14–192–90–50.8–2.1
2nd9–122–61–40.6–1.4
3rd13–133–103–31.1–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK32:18 of the 3rd17:4217:42+0.023 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
44
Saves
38
Allowed
6
xGA
5.33
GSAx
-0.67
Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
2.48
GSAx
-0.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 12:00Penalty
  • 1st 12:00Penalty
  • 1st 13:52Penalty
  • 1st 16:35Penalty
  • 1st 16:35Penalty
  • 1st 16:35Penalty
  • 1st 17:13Jack Thompson (0–1)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 19:25Penalty
  • 2nd 0:25Danil Gushchin (0–2)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 11:17Penalty
  • 2nd 13:50Walker Duehr (0–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 14:15Ethan Keppen (1–3)high · 7 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 17:10Penalty
  • 3rd 0:46Penalty
  • 3rd 2:18Walker Duehr (1–4)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 5:42Pavol Regenda (1–5)medium · 21 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 5:54Penalty
  • 3rd 9:44Matthew Savoie (2–5)high · 9 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 11:21Penalty
  • 3rd 13:53Jimmy Schuldt (2–6)medium · 24 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 15:43Penalty
  • 3rd 19:17Penalty
  • 3rd 19:17Penalty
  • 3rd 19:56Cam Dineen (3–6)5v4 · low · 58 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere