Providence Bruins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Providence Bruins

3:6

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

PROCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

22%78%

xG: 2.94.1
High danger: 18
Chances: 1018
Shots: 3138

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal38

10Scoring chances18

1High-danger chances8

2.86Expected goals4.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	5–5	0–4	1.1–1.3
2nd	11–18	4–10	1–4	1.1–2.2
3rd	9–9	1–3	0–0	0.7–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	3	3:54 of the 3rd	16:06	16:06	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.86
GSAx: -0.14

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.49
GSAx: -1.51

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 8
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.65
GSAx: -0.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:35Ben Steeves (0–1)high · 13 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 9:34Nicholas Zabaneh (0–2)high · 18 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 10:23Penalty
1st 10:23Penalty
1st 18:24Justin Sourdif (0–3)high · 10 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 0:58Penalty
2nd 4:21Jaxon Nelson (1–3)grade A · 21 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 5:50Penalty
2nd 14:00Jesse Puljujärvi (1–4)high · 13 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
2nd 14:22Penalty
2nd 14:44Matthew Poitras (2–4)5v4 · low · 46 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 15:27Joey Abate (3–4)low · 51 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 16:16Wilmer Skoog (3–5)low · 36 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 3:54Trevor Carrick (3–6)low · 57 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 18:56Penalty