AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, March 25

Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose
1:4
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
24%76%
xG
1.92.5
High danger
14
Chances
610
Shots
2929

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal29
6Scoring chances10
1High-danger chances4
1.86Expected goals2.48

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–104–30–11.1–0.9
2nd5–130–40–20.2–1.1
3rd8–62–31–10.5–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
29
Saves
25
Allowed
4
xGA
2.48
GSAx
-1.52
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
29
Saves
28
Allowed
1
xGA
1.86
GSAx
+0.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:53Penalty
  • 1st 4:27Penalty
  • 1st 13:04Tyson Empey (1–0)medium · 14 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 18:45Penalty
  • 2nd 0:47Joakim Kemell (1–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 1:37Penalty
  • 2nd 7:51Penalty
  • 2nd 13:06Penalty
  • 2nd 16:33Penalty
  • 2nd 17:29Cal O’Reilly (1–2)5v4 · high · 27 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 3:37Mark Friedman (1–3)high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 16:33Penalty
  • 3rd 19:00Joakim Kemell (1–4)empty net · medium · 11 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis