Cleveland Monsters at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Cleveland Monsters

5:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

CLEBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 2.42.7
High danger: 31
Chances: 68
Shots: 2833

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal33

6Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances1

2.36Expected goals2.69

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	2–3	1–0	0.9–1.1
2nd	12–10	4–1	2–0	1.2–0.6
3rd	5–12	0–4	0–1	0.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.69
GSAx: +1.69

Leevi Meriläinen

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.36
GSAx: -2.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:47Penalty
1st 17:13Jordan Dumais (1–0)low · 44 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
1st 17:25Penalty
1st 19:47Penalty
1st 19:47Penalty
2nd 4:46Cole Reinhardt (1–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Jet Greaves
2nd 5:12Penalty
2nd 6:43Trey Fix-Wolansky (2–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
2nd 8:03Penalty
2nd 12:30Penalty
2nd 14:06Penalty
2nd 19:48Penalty
3rd 3:06Penalty
3rd 6:56Roman Ahcan (3–1)low · 59 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 7:59Penalty
3rd 8:34Penalty
3rd 16:00Trey Fix-Wolansky (4–1)low · 37 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen
3rd 16:31Penalty
3rd 17:32Luca Del Bel Belluz (5–1)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Leevi Meriläinen