Toronto Marlies at Laval Rocket

Place Bell · Laval, QC

Toronto Marlies

1:4

Final

Laval Rocket

The sheet

TORLAVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 3.63.3
High danger: 66
Chances: 1513
Shots: 3229

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LAV above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LAV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal29

15Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances6

3.58Expected goals3.28

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	4–2	3–1	1.1–0.7
2nd	20–8	8–6	2–2	1.8–1.3
3rd	6–11	3–5	1–3	0.7–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cayden Primeau

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 31
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.58
GSAx: +2.58

Dennis Hildeby

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.28
GSAx: -0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:00William Trudeau (0–1)low · wrist · 69 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
1st 5:12Penalty
1st 13:23Penalty
2nd 2:12Penalty
2nd 7:35Penalty
2nd 7:35Penalty
2nd 9:49Penalty
2nd 9:55Alex Barré-Boulet (0–2)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 11 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 10:00Penalty
2nd 11:13Florian Xhekaj (0–3)5v4 · high · snap · 20 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby
2nd 12:43Penalty
2nd 13:05Penalty
3rd 6:10Penalty
3rd 6:45Penalty
3rd 10:48Penalty
3rd 10:48Penalty
3rd 14:49Jacob Quillan (1–3)medium · tip · 7 ft · beat Cayden Primeau
3rd 18:52Alex Barré-Boulet (1–4)empty net · high · wrist · 20 ft · beat Dennis Hildeby