Iowa Wild at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Iowa Wild

0:4

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

IASPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.92.9
High danger: 35
Chances: 1011
Shots: 3629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances5

2.91Expected goals2.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–5	2–2	1–1	0.7–0.4
2nd	13–13	7–5	2–3	1.4–1.6
3rd	12–11	1–4	0–1	0.8–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	3	4:36 of the 3rd	15:24	15:24	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 36
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.91
GSAx: +2.91

Dylan Ferguson

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 15
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.93
GSAx: -0.07

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 10
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.02
GSAx: -0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:11Penalty
1st 16:15Penalty
2nd 2:58Penalty
2nd 5:58Penalty
2nd 8:48Penalty
2nd 8:48Penalty
2nd 8:52Dylan Peterson (0–1)high · 27 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
2nd 10:50Penalty
2nd 10:50Penalty
2nd 10:50Mackenzie MacEachern (0–2)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Dylan Ferguson
2nd 11:36Penalty
2nd 17:44Penalty
3rd 4:36Hugh McGing (0–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 14:36Matthew Peca (0–4)low · 31 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 15:00Penalty
3rd 19:07Penalty