Bridgeport Islanders at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Bridgeport Islanders

0:6

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

BRIROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 3.74.7
High danger: 88
Chances: 1517
Shots: 2841

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal41

15Scoring chances17

8High-danger chances8

3.68Expected goals4.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–13	7–3	3–1	1.6–1.1
2nd	9–18	6–11	4–6	1.3–2.6
3rd	5–10	2–3	1–1	0.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	6	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 28
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.68
GSAx: +3.68

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.12
GSAx: -2.88

Hunter Miska

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: +1.61

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:33Zach Metsa (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 4:41Penalty
1st 8:22Mason Jobst (0–2)low · 44 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 15:42Penalty
1st 17:38Riley Fiddler-Schultz (0–3)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 2:37Penalty
2nd 9:38Penalty
2nd 10:22Noah Östlund (0–4)4v5 · high · 12 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 10:55Penalty
2nd 12:35Josh Dunne (0–5)4v5 · low · 51 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 15:04Graham Slaggert (0–6)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Hunter Miska
2nd 16:07Penalty
2nd 19:48Penalty
2nd 19:48Penalty
3rd 10:40Penalty
3rd 14:43Penalty