Manitoba Moose at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Manitoba Moose

2:1

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MBRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

64%36%

xG: 1.71.8
High danger: 32
Chances: 86
Shots: 2119

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal19

8Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances2

1.69Expected goals1.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–6	2–2	1–2	0.5–0.8
2nd	11–8	5–3	1–0	1.0–0.7
3rd	3–5	1–1	1–0	0.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.69
GSAx: -0.31

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 18
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: +0.84

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:26Jackson Cates (0–1)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Chris Driedger
1st 7:00Dylan Coghlan (1–1)low · 56 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
1st 7:57Penalty
1st 15:00Penalty
2nd 3:50Penalty
2nd 5:01Danny Zhilkin (2–1)5v4 · low · 51 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
2nd 9:15Penalty
2nd 10:21Penalty
2nd 10:21Penalty
3rd 1:07Penalty
3rd 4:06Penalty
3rd 18:22Penalty