Calgary Wranglers at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Calgary Wranglers

2:8

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CGYBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

28%72%

xG: 2.73.9
High danger: 46
Chances: 618
Shots: 3536

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal36

6Scoring chances18

4High-danger chances6

2.66Expected goals3.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–7	5–2	3–0	1.4–0.4
2nd	13–17	1–11	1–5	0.7–2.2
3rd	10–12	0–5	0–1	0.6–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 28
Allowed: 8
xGA: 3.89
GSAx: -4.11

Brett Brochu

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.66
GSAx: +0.66

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:08Parker Bell (1–0)grade A · wrist · rebound · 12 ft · beat Brett Brochu
1st 3:12Penalty
1st 13:13Penalty
1st 19:54Sam Morton (2–0)medium · wrist · 15 ft · beat Brett Brochu
2nd 5:26Matvey Petrov (2–1)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 6:47Noah Philp (2–2)medium · wrist · 14 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 7:00Penalty
2nd 7:00Penalty
2nd 7:58Drake Caggiula (2–3)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 11:18Penalty
2nd 14:30Ethan Keppen (2–4)medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 16:17Noah Philp (2–5)high · wrist · 13 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 2:41Penalty
3rd 5:00Ethan Keppen (2–6)medium · wrist · 19 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 8:40Penalty
3rd 12:58James Hamblin (2–7)low · 27 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 17:47Penalty
3rd 18:18Connor Carrick (2–8)5v4 · low · slap · 42 ft · beat Devin Cooley