AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, March 28

Tucson Roadrunners at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
1:5
Final
San Diego Gulls

The sheet

TUCSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
22%78%
xG
1.41.8
High danger
13
Chances
26
Shots
2323

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SD above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal23
2Scoring chances6
1High-danger chances3
1.35Expected goals1.79

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–80–20–00.5–0.5
2nd7–71–10–10.5–0.5
3rd6–81–31–20.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC38:27 of the 3rd11:3311:33+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ville Husso
Shots faced
23
Saves
22
Allowed
1
xGA
1.35
GSAx
+0.35
Dylan Wells
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
1.79
GSAx
-3.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:42Penalty
  • 1st 15:26Penalty
  • 2nd 2:50Penalty
  • 2nd 8:01Penalty
  • 2nd 8:23Ian Moore (0–1)5v4 · low · 62 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 2nd 12:51Penalty
  • 3rd 6:06Tristan Luneau (0–2)low · 48 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 8:27Justin Bailey (0–3)high · 14 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 14:33Justin Bailey (0–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 15:35Penalty
  • 3rd 15:38Egor Sokolov (1–4)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Ville Husso
  • 3rd 15:58Judd Caulfield (1–5)empty net · low · 117 ft · beat Dylan Wells
  • 3rd 18:27Penalty
  • 3rd 18:27Penalty