Milwaukee Admirals at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Milwaukee Admirals

3:2

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

MILHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 1.82.9
High danger: 54
Chances: 79
Shots: 1933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal33

7Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances4

1.82Expected goals2.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	3–2	2–2	0.7–0.8
2nd	8–10	3–1	2–0	0.8–0.5
3rd	3–14	1–6	1–2	0.3–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	3	5:35 of the 3rd	14:25	14:25	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.94
GSAx: +0.94

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.82
GSAx: -1.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:01Penalty
1st 12:11Penalty
1st 13:09Jake Lucchini (1–0)5v4 · high · wrist · rebound · 33 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 13:43Penalty
1st 18:05Penalty
2nd 1:41Jack Matier (2–0)low · wrist · rebound · 61 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 10:22Penalty
2nd 12:47Penalty
2nd 15:37Penalty
3rd 5:35Chase De Leo (3–0)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 14:34Penalty
3rd 16:45Matyas Sapovaliv (3–1)grade A · wrist · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 18:55Jonas Røndbjerg (3–2)high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray