Abbotsford Canucks at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

5:1

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

ABBSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.62.9
High danger: 53
Chances: 166
Shots: 4139

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

41Shots on goal39

16Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances3

3.60Expected goals2.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	5–1	1–1	1.1–0.7
2nd	14–17	5–3	2–1	1.2–1.4
3rd	14–14	6–2	2–1	1.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 38
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.86
GSAx: +1.86

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.77
GSAx: +0.77

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 7
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.83
GSAx: -2.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:13Cooper Walker (1–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 4:22Phillip Di Giuseppe (2–0)high · 9 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 11:08Chase Wouters (3–0)low · 10 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 17:56Penalty
2nd 5:55Jujhar Khaira (4–0)high · 9 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 13:14Penalty
2nd 15:43Penalty
2nd 18:20Penalty
3rd 1:17Penalty
3rd 2:57Phillip Di Giuseppe (5–0)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Aaron Dell
3rd 7:53Joey Keane (5–1)low · 37 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 8:59Penalty
3rd 10:02Penalty
3rd 11:45Penalty
3rd 11:45Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty
3rd 16:33Penalty