Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

5:3

Final

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

WBSCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.23.0
High danger: 53
Chances: 1016
Shots: 2328

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal28

10Scoring chances16

5High-danger chances3

2.25Expected goals3.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–11	3–3	2–0	0.6–0.8
2nd	8–8	4–6	1–1	0.8–1.1
3rd	10–9	3–7	2–2	0.8–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Filip Larsson

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: +0.04

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 18
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.25
GSAx: -2.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:43Penalty
1st 14:30Penalty
1st 18:50Penalty
2nd 3:11Penalty
2nd 9:21Sam Poulin (1–0)high · 21 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 12:10Valtteri Puustinen (2–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 14:57Nicholas Zabaneh (2–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Filip Larsson
2nd 16:15Sandis Vilmanis (2–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Filip Larsson
3rd 1:08Penalty
3rd 13:07Penalty
3rd 14:43Vasily Ponomarev (3–2)5v4 · low · 43 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 17:43Matt Nieto (4–2)empty net · low · 86 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 18:08Joona Koppanen (5–2)empty net · high · 9 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 19:34Justin Sourdif (5–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Filip Larsson