Rochester Americans at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Rochester Americans

4:2

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

ROCSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

65%35%

xG: 2.92.1
High danger: 53
Chances: 96
Shots: 2625

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances3

2.94Expected goals2.05

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	3–1	1–0	1.0–0.5
2nd	7–6	4–3	2–3	1.1–0.8
3rd	9–12	2–2	2–0	0.8–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	9:18	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Felix Sandström

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.05
GSAx: +0.05

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 14
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: +0.73

Brandon Halverson

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 8
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.20
GSAx: -1.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:12Penalty
1st 7:29Erik Brännström (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
1st 9:47Brendan Warren (2–0)low · 62 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 3:51Brett Murray (3–0)medium · 19 ft · beat Brandon Halverson
2nd 4:15Penalty
2nd 7:23Penalty
2nd 12:09Penalty
2nd 14:06Penalty
2nd 14:06Penalty
2nd 17:20Penalty
3rd 2:01Gabriel Dumont (3–1)medium · 15 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 2:06Penalty
3rd 16:08Penalty
3rd 16:22Conor Geekie (3–2)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Felix Sandström
3rd 19:55Noah Östlund (4–2)empty net · low · 28 ft · beat Ryan Fanti