Hershey Bears at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Hershey Bears

2:4

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

HERUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

78%22%

xG: 2.61.8
High danger: 61
Chances: 97
Shots: 2125

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances7

6High-danger chances1

2.57Expected goals1.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–5	3–3	2–1	0.8–0.7
2nd	6–8	3–2	2–0	0.8–0.5
3rd	6–12	3–2	2–0	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.83
GSAx: -2.17

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.57
GSAx: +0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 17:51Nathan Légaré (0–1)grade A · 22 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 5:23Penalty
2nd 9:21Xavier Parent (0–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 10:54Penalty
2nd 13:29Penalty
2nd 16:23Luke Philp (1–2)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 17:55Penalty
2nd 17:55Penalty
2nd 17:55Penalty
3rd 5:13Nathan Légaré (1–3)low · 52 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 5:51Penalty
3rd 17:28Penalty
3rd 17:37Ryan Schmelzer (1–4)empty net · medium · 29 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 18:14Penalty
3rd 18:27Chase Priskie (2–4)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Isaac Poulter